Gambling on the White House: Putting Money on the Trump

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gambling industry ladbrokes paddy power us presidential race
Saturday, Mar 19, 2016 15:39
The presidential race is receiving much media attention at the moment. It's often, however, the sports betting companies, like Paddy Power and Ladbrokes, that have the right pedigree to get it right. Following these companies, the odds of Hillary Clinton winning are highest, while other bets may be profitable but risky.

Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton took a huge leap in securing their parties' presidential candidacy on Tuesday. Super Tuesday, which marks one of the most important deciders on who will run for White House in the United States, saw both candidates gain majority support. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton secured seven states. Clinton's success came as less a surprise than Trump's. Clinton's outcome was predictable with securing support in many of the Southern states, where Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, began their political careers. Trump's victories, on the other hand, stretched into the deep south and as far north as Massachusetts.

Analysts, who had previously ruled out Trump as the Republican candidate, are flabbergasted. As the race to the White House, cumulating in the US general elections on 8 November 2016, is accelerating, and the campaigns are taking form, several bookmaker companies are following the developments closely.

Donald Trump's odds at winning the presidential seat improved significantly at Ladbrokes. Following the Iowa caucuses in early February, Donald Trump's odds to become US president improved from 7/1 to 9/2. After Super Sunday, the odds stand at 2/1. Hillary Clinton, however, is considered the most likely winner of the 2016 presidential election. Her odds are currently at 8/15.

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Paddy Power similarly rates Trump's chances at 2/1, while Clinton is predicted to win at 1/2. One of the most profitable bets, yet less risky that the probability of Michael Bloomberg (40/1) or John Kasich (80/1) winning, is the bet on Marco Rubio. Rubio's odds stand at 16/1.

The picture looks similar on the betting slip entitled Presidential Nominee. Clinton is predicted to be the democratic candidate at 1/33, with Bernie Sanders in pursuit at 12/1. Trump's chances to run as republican candidate currently stand at 1/7, followed Marc Rubio at 11/2.

But what do these figures mean for the gambling industry, other than winners and losers, and increased profits for betting companies.

According to Politifact, the following exchange took place between Job Bush and Donald Trump:


Bush: "He wanted casino gambling in Florida -- "

Trump: "I didn’t -- "

Bush: "Yes, you did."

Trump: "Totally false."

Bush: "You wanted it, and you didn’t get it, because I was opposed to -- "

Trump: "I would have gotten it."

Bush: " -- casino gambling before -- "

Trump: "I promise, I would have gotten it."

Bush: " -- during and after. I’m not going to be bought by anybody."

The site, which attempts to debunk the claims politicians make, concludes that Donald Trump did not petition for gambling in Florida directly. Yet, a wealth of evidence exists, which leads Politifact to believe that Trump was pursuing a deal to operate casinos in Florida. During the time, in 1998, Trump funded the state party and Jeb Bush ran for governor.